Archive: 2008 June

Yet again, the comments to a previous post have gone on an interesting tangent. Once again Jeff was behind it. He’s not afraid to get stuck into a debate and he always has some interesting points to share, even though I don’t always agree with him! I thought the discussion was quite good so I want to share some of it in a new post and also expand on my thinking behind abstention and why it is not a bad thing.

Before I start I should point out that I have never abstained in an election that was at local government level or above. In fact, in the local government elections last year I listed a whopping four preferences. Not bad for a cynic! (Having said that, it was admittedly for negative reasons — I wanted to vote for everyone except Labour).

Nonetheless, I struggle nowadays to understand why abstainers are so vilified, as though they are sub-human. I think sometimes people conflate abstention with apathy. In reality it is perfectly consistent to be interested in politics and yet not vote when the election comes round.

In his first comment Jeff said:

I find it incredible that someone can maintain such a thoughtful and intelligent political blog with all these numerous opinions and then, when an election comes around, he may not take part.

Compare and contrast with James O’Malley’s comment:

I think your experiences of becoming more apathetic with age – essentially more apathetic as you became better informed – are pretty similar for a lot of people. I’ve just finished a degree in International Relations, and as a consequence of learning what a horrible bleak mess the world is, I think we all became cynical about almost anything political.

I have gone through a similar process. Being interested in elections and voting behaviour, whenever there was an opportunity to study them at university I took it. I wrote my dissertation on what motivates people to vote. The whole learning experience has led me to become less likely to vote and more sympathetic towards abstainers.

(As an aside, if anyone’s interested, I have decided to upload my dissertation here since it got the best mark of anything I ever did at university so I feel quite good about it! So if you’re interested and you have a bit of spare time, have a read and you might get a bit more insight into my current thinking about voting.)

In short, Jeff asked why someone like me would not vote despite knowing so much about politics. What slipped his mind was the possibility that someone like me would not vote because they know so much about politics.

For a few months now I have been meaning to outline a few problems with elections and democracy as we know it (this post isn’t it by the way, it’s still coming). This is not because I am not a democrat, because I am. However, I am disappointed in the poor standard of analysis of democracy. Discussions about it frequently descend into a list of clichés and slogans. It leads me to think that most people are democrats because of blind faith rather than because they have actually thought about it.

That’s a dangerous situation to be in because it breeds complacency. The flaws of democracy are constantly swept under the carpet. But the only way to improve things is to put the flaws on a pedestal and debate them properly. Simply pulling out that hoary old Churchill quote doesn’t bring us any further forward.

That was the case in the comments to the post about student apathy. All I said was that I understood why some people would not vote. Before I knew it, commenters made out that I was advocating something resembling anarchy, I had no right to complain if I didn’t vote, I was doing an injustice to the people of Zimbabwe, and, yes, that bloody Churchill quote was wheeled out. A who’s who of clichéd arguments that get us no further forward.

Bellgrove Belle began proceedings by advocating compulsory voting — albeit with a ‘none of the above’ option (how gracious of you!!). I let that slip by at the time, but only because I didn’t want to go down that tangent. However, now that I have started a separate post I will outline why compulsory voting is the most outrageous idea.

Firstly — and this should hardly need pointing out — people are not the servants of politicians. Yet. Politicians are the servants of the people. Having a government frogmarching everyone to the polling station is not my idea of freedom. The point about the right to vote is that it is a right. That means that you can choose to use it or not. If you are forced to vote, it is no longer a right — it is an oppression.

A vital principle of our liberal way of life is that people know for themselves what is best in almost all instances unless their actions cause harm to others. If people do not vote, it is not because they are wrong (which is a view typically only found among political elites). It is because, for the abstainers, it is costly to go out and vote. And if it is costly for an individual, in turn it is costly to society.

Beyond the cost of sending everyone out to vote, what is wrong with just leaving people be? People should be perfectly entitled to abstain if they want. Forcing people to do things they do not want to do will only breed even more cynicism and apathy.

Having a ‘none of the above’ option is the ridiculous fig leaf to all of these criticisms. There is already a none of the above option. People know very well that they can spoil their paper when they get to the polling station. If people were screaming out for a none of the above option, we would know it by now.

I have only ever heard compulsory voting being advocated by two groups of people: politicians and aspiring politicians. It is funny that these people should select the one ‘solution’ to apathy that is almost guaranteed to give them more votes. What a coincidence! Moreover, it is the lazy option for them to choose. It implies that it is the voters who have done wrong, which is a very undemocratic stance to take in actual fact. For politicians, the idea that it is they themselves who have caused apathy — and that it is their job to fix it — is too difficult for them to comprehend, so it seems.

Jeff was next up, suggesting that the logical conclusion of my defending abstention for an individual is advocating mass abstention. Nothing could be further from the truth. Indeed, it is the very fact that others vote in their millions that makes abstention as an individual a reasonable option.

If no-one else voted then I would find the voting decision very easy — I would cast the deciding vote, probably for myself. We don’t live in that world, and my stance is a pragmatic recognition of that fact.

There is that old guilt trip: “what if everyone else thought like you?” The point is that not everyone does think like me. And it would be rather egotistical of me to think that my actions would be copied en masse by the population as a whole. If it were the case that I was so influential, I would find myself sharing the same bed with six and a half billion others every night. As Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt point out:

Imagine that you and your 8-year-old daughter are taking a walk through a botanical garden when she suddenly pulls a bright blossom off a tree.

“You shouldn’t do that,” you find yourself saying.

“Why not?” she asks.

“Well,” you reason, “because if everyone picked one, there wouldn’t be any flowers left at all.”

“Yeah, but everybody isn’t picking them,” she says with a look. “Only me.”

Then Jeff pulls out that old one — if you’re so dissatisfied with the candidates, why don’t you stand yourself? The answer, I would have thought, should be obvious. Standing for election would involve immense personal financial and other costs. I would have to give up my job to dedicate enough time to campaigning, meaning a loss of income. Then I would have to somehow fund the campaign itself.

On top of that, I would probably lose my deposit. The political system is heavily biased in favour of the large parties — partly because of the voting system, partly because of the media and whatever else. The fact is that if you want to be successful in an election you almost always need the backing of a big party machine.

Independent candidates are successful from time to time, and small parties do break through. But in reality these are all led by either someone with a lot of money or a celebrity figure like Tommy Sheridan or Martin Bell. The other successful independents are single-issue (often local-issue) candidates, and I am interested in more than one local issue.

The point I am making is that were I to stand for election tomorrow, no matter how good my policies were, I would have almost no chance of making any kind of impact whatsoever. Am I supposed to believe, as Jeff suggests, that this is the extent of my democratic powers? You can’t exactly blame someone for not doing this when the odds are so heavily stacked against them.

Get ready for another cliché now. “If you don’t vote, you don’t have the right to complain.” Aaah, *tick*.

This is one of the oldest ones in the book. Yet even though it’s a catchy slogan, what is always omitted is exactly the reason why you don’t have the right to complain. Is that because there isn’t one?

Democracy is about so much more than elections. For sure, an election is a vital cog in the democratic process, but it is just one cog among many. China has elections, but that doesn’t make it a democracy. Just this week we have witnessed a sham election in Zimbabwe.

I would think that the idea that elections are the only valid form of political participation in a democracy would come as a surprise to the many pressure groups, non-governmental organisations, media outlets, publishers, think tanks, academics, mass demonstrators, lone protesters, letter writers, bloggers even, and others — all of whom play a vital role in a democracy. Is it really more valid to enact change “from within”? Then we are to do away with all of these vital elements of civic society? Are these people all supposed to stand for election as well? Are they harassed about their voting behaviour before being permitted to speak up?

Democracy is so much more than putting an X in a box. It is about speaking out, debating and persuading. If you have next to no power in the ballot box, what is so illegitimate about using a different method of trying to improve the world? I think that suggesting that people don’t have a right to speak out because they recognise that their vote is near worthless is actually an intensely anti-democratic view to take.

Jeff’s position is apparently to say that the only valid way I have to express myself is to vote for someone, even if it is the “least worst” candidate. Am I really supposed to believe that the extent of my democratic rights is to vote Lib Dem instead of Labour?

Even when I do express a preference in the polling booth, that vote is a drop in the ocean. My reasons for voting are lost among those of thousands of other voters (or, in a national election, millions of others), each of whom voted for different reasons. The politician then cherry-picks the reasons that suit his agenda best. So what have I achieved by voting?

I can say that the time I have spent voting is a waste when I could have spent that time engaging in another democratic activity. For instance, I could have spent that time writing here. That way I can articulate my views in an infinitely more nuanced way than I would by voting. This makes my voice louder than it otherwise would have been. I believe that I can make more of a difference by doing this. What would be so illegitimate about that?

This is all without even getting into the instance where you genuinely are undecided. If a voter is guilt-tripped or compelled to haul himself into the polling station, what is he supposed to do? Toss a coin? Close his eyes and see where the pencil lands? Given that your vote is essentially a way of enforcing your views onto other people, I am amazed that anyone thinks that the decision to vote should be taken so lightly.

Finally came the guilt trip from Ideas of Civilisation. He brought up the current situation in Zimbabwe saying, “it’s a reminder of the freedoms, and responsibilities, we have here.”

The thing is, I believe that recent events in Zimbabwe support my view. Morgan Tsvangirai pulled out of the contest because the election was a “violent sham”. Was that illegitimate? Or should he have contested the election because otherwise he doesn’t have the right to criticise? Of course not. His voice is louder outside the contest and he has made the point about the current situation in Zimbabwe very forcefully. It is a perfect example of making one’s voice heard outside of official electoral channels.

Of course, the situation in Zimbabwe is very different to the situation we face in this country and other, freer, more democratic countries. I suspect the point IoC was making about Zimbabwe was that, in such countries whenever there is a free election is usually has a comparatively high turnout.

That is right, although it is a very different situation. When you are given hope in the shape of an inspiring candidate you are bound to grab it with both hands. That is the case even more so if the bandwagon theory (discussed in my dissertation) is true — people want to feel a part of making a big change so will take part in the vote.

You don’t have to live in an unfree country for such a thing to happen, so that doesn’t put this country’s politicians off the hook. Barack Obama is currently doing it in the USA by engaging certain parts of the electorate at levels that have never been achieved before. It’s just that right now there is no such candidate in this country.

Back to the unfree country though. Even in the hypothetical watershed election that brings everyone hope, turnout will not be 100%. It might be higher than the turnouts we see in this country, but it will be nowhere near 100%. In fact, if turnout was anywhere close to 100% accusations of vote rigging will be flying.

This fact demonstrates that abstention is a perfectly natural and legitimate position to take in an election. In fact, it serves a very useful function in a democracy. Any attempts to eradicate it should be viewed with as much suspicion as attempts to eradicate any other political view.

As outlined in a previous bluffer’s guide, there is no promotion or relegation and the decision for teams and drivers to enter F1 is essentially a business decision. But of course drivers (and sometimes teams) do not just appear out of thin air. There are countless other categories of motor racing that drivers also compete in. There is no set route towards Formula 1, nor do all paths necessarily lead to F1. But Formula 1 is generally regarded to be ‘top of the tree’ that most drivers aspire to compete in.

However, a cursory glance at the various championships organised by the FIA alone (never mind non-FIA championships) reveals that motor racing is a hugely diverse category of sports. The skills needed to be a top F1 driver are very different to the skills required to succeed in rallying, drag racing and hill climbing!

The next two bluffer’s guides will cover those categories where you should look out for future (and sometimes past) F1 stars. I have done research on the careers of every driver that has entered a Formula 1 race in the past five seasons. This has revealed which junior formulae are the most common early destinations for future F1 stars. This post will cover the major series from GP2 to Formula 3 and everything in between.

The following diagram shows the links between categories en route to F1. Any moves made by two or more drivers are represented in the diagram. Down the centre column is by far the most common route: Formula Renault / BMW / Ford → Formula 3 → GP2 → Formula 1. Other links show more unorthodox but nevertheless common routes to and from F1. The area of the boxes denote the number of F1 drivers that have raced in that category.

Routes to F1

Tier two (maroon boxes)

GP2

The most conventional entry point to F1 is GP2. This was designed specifically as an F1 “feeder” series in 2005. The cars are similar to, but less sophisticated than, F1 cars. GP2 is a spec series (meaning that all of the cars are the same). GP2 replaced Formula 3000, which in turn replaced Formula 2 in 1985.

Current F1 drivers Lewis Hamilton, Heikki Kovalainen, Nico Rosberg, Timo Glock and Nelsinho Piquet all graduated from GP2. Every year in GP2′s short history, the GP2 Champion has been offered an F1 drive for the following year so it is the place to look for up-and-coming talent. Look out for Romain Grosjean, Bruno Senna (Ayrton’s nephew) and Sébastien Buemi who could be on their way to becoming F1 drivers in the near future.

Occasionally, but not so often, former F1 drivers compete in GP2. Timo Glock entered GP2 after a fleeting appearance in F1 and after a few years he got another drive in the top category. Giorgio Pantano is another former F1 driver currently competing in GP2, but although he is relatively successful in GP2 he is getting on now and there is little interest in him from F1 teams.

The main GP2 series is a ‘support’ race at most European F1 events, so GP2 drivers get the opportunity to learn many F1 tracks. Interestingly, Giancarlo Fisichella can be seen casting a watchful eye over proceedings when he has finished his F1 sessions — he owns a GP2 team, Fisichella Motor Sport.

GP2 Asia

GP2 also has a spin-off series called GP2 Asia which runs during winter. Two events — Malaysia and Bahrain — are also F1 support races. As the name suggests, this is focussed on Asian circuits where there is an emerging interest in motor racing, though many of the teams and drivers are the same as the main GP2 Series.

Formula Nippon

Formula Nippon is the Japanese equivalent of GP2 / Formula 3000. In the past a few drivers have graduated from Formula Nippon. These include Ralf Schumacher and Pedro de la Rosa. Michael Schumacher also drove for one race in Formula Nippon prior to racing in F1.

However, the talent available in Formula Nippon not generally up to the standards of F1. The series is more likely to supply under-performing Japanese drivers such as Yuji Ide and Sakon Yamamoto. The best Japanese drivers are more likely to prove their worth in a European category, with Formula Nippon remaining primarily a Japan-centric series.

Tier 2.5 (red boxes)

I have invented ‘tier 2.5′ for the purposes of this post. It represents categories that are not as major as GP2, but are arguably more important than Formula 3.

World Series by Renault

This is a relatively new — and rapidly growing — series of motor racing. Part of Renault’s massive motor racing programme, this is also known as Formula Renault 3.5. It is designed to slot in between Formula 3 and GP2.

The series can be traced back to its roots as the Open Fortuna by Nissan in 1998. Back then it was a particularly Spanish motor racing series. But it quickly gained a reputation as a stamping ground for hot new talent. Almost every winner of the series has gone on to make a name for himself in F1 including Fernando Alonso, Heikki Kovalainen and Robert Kubica.

Over the years the series has cultivated a more international feel with races in nine different countries. The most recent winner of the series is Álvaro Parente who is currently racing in GP2. Part of the prize drivers get by winning the World Series by Renault is a test drive with the Renault F1 team.

A1GP

The self-styled “World Cup of Motorsport” likes to think of itself as a major rival to F1, though in reality it is quite a minor championship. Running in winter to avoid clashing with F1, A1GP is an unusual concept in that the focus of the championship is not on drivers or teams but on nationalities.

Like GP2, A1GP is a spec series. A1GP pulled off a major coup by persuading Ferrari to design and manufacture the A1GP chassis and engine which will be used for four seasons from 2008-2009.

In its favour, A1GP has attracted entries from a number of countries which do not have a strong tradition in motor racing. This may help bring motor racing to new audiences. However, the drivers are often treated as disposable commodities, with teams swapping drivers about all season.

A1GP has not proved to be a good feeder series, with only relatively poor drivers Scott Speed and Nelsinho Piquet having graduated from A1GP to F1. Former F1 drivers can be found racing in A1GP. Ex F1 drivers to have taken part in A1GP include Jos Verstappen, Narain Karthikeyan and Franck Montagny.

Superleague Formula

Superleague Formula is, like A1GP, a slightly eccentric idea for a racing series — but might just work. It is new, hence the uncertainty. Instead of teams as we know them, drivers will be representing football clubs on the racing circuit with the spec cars decked out in each football team’s colours.

One British club — Rangers FC — is involved, along with a number of other major football clubs from around the world. The only notable driver confirmed for Superleague Formula so far is ex-F1 driver Robert Doornbos.

Formula 3 (orange box)

Formula 3 is a very important category for F1. All but four of the 45 drivers who have raced in F1 in the past five years raced in F3 along the way. As such, F3 is a great category to keep an eye on for those interested in F1′s future talent. Six recent F1 drivers including Jenson Button, Jarno Trulli and Giancarlo Fisichella all made the jump directly from F3 to F1. However, success in F3 could just as easily spell a career in another category such as touring cars.

The champions of five F3 series are each eligible for an FIA Super License for 12 months. The five series are Formula 3 Euroseries, British F3 International, Italian Formula 3, Formel 3 Cup and Japanese Formula 3.

F3 is not actually a single championship. Rather, there are several championships which are part of the F3 category.

Formula 3 Euroseries

A very new series but already arguably the most important is the F3 Euroseries. As the name suggests, circuits from all around Europe are used. F3 Euroseries was originally intended to replace the separate French and German F3 championships. The French F3 series ended, but German F3 continues in a different form to this day.

Lewis Hamilton won the F3 Euroseries championship in utterly dominant fashion in 2005, the year before he entered GP2. Other notable F3 Euroseries graduates include Robert Kubica, Nico Rosberg and Sebastian Vettel. Those still to make it to F1 but making waves nonetheless include Romain Grosjean and Sébastien Buemi. One name to watch out for among the current F3 Euroseries drivers is Nico Hülkenberg who already has a relationship with the Williams F1 team.

Macau Formula 3 Grand Prix

The Macau Formula 3 Grand Prix is an annual event that brings together many of the top F3 drivers from the various F3 competitions around the world. The Macau street circuit is a challenging racetrack. As such, drivers who excel in Macau often do well in higher categories. 13 of this year’s 22 F1 drivers have competed in this event.

Famous winners include Ayrton Senna, David Coulthard and Michael Schumacher. Recent winners include Lucas di Grassi and Mike Conway, both currently making waves in GP2.

Masters of Formula 3

Another major international F3 event, this is Europe’s most important F3 race. Like Macau, 13 of this year’s F1 drivers have competed in this event. Recent winners include Lewis Hamilton, Christian Klien and Nico Hülkenberg.

British F3 International

The F3 championship with the longest history is British F3 (now known as British F3 International). The ‘British’ in British F3 refers only to the circuits that are used. The championship itself is open to drivers of all nationalities, but all of the races are held in Britain.

The list of British F3 champions includes many familiar names that went on to make a name for themselves in F1. Most notable in recent years is perhaps Mika Häkkinen who won the 1990 British F3 championship and went on to become a double F1 World Champion in 1998 and 1999. In 2000, Jenson Button caused a stir by leaping straight from F3 to F1, even though he only finished third in the British British F3 championship! But the British F3 roll of honour also contains a number of promising youngsters whose stars faded before they could reach the top category.

Seven of this season’s F1 drivers competed in British F3. Additionally, several test drivers honed their skills in this series. F1 takes a great deal of interest in British F3 and Kimi Räikkönen co-owns a British F3 team, Räikkönen Robertson Racing. Recent British F3 drivers to look out for in future include Mike Conway, Álvaro Parente and Marko Asmer.

Other F3 series

Other F3 series include the Formel 3 Cup (originally German F3, which Michael Schumacher won in 1990 and several other F1 drivers competed in their youth), Japanese F3 (which Adrian Sutil won in 2006) and Italian F3 (whose biggest name has been Giancarlo Fisichella). Drivers from Latin America including Rubens Barrichello and Nelsinho Piquet have competed in Formula 3 Sudamericana.

Keep an eye out for the next bluffer’s guide which will look at entry-level series and non-open wheel series.

There has not been much blogging this week because I have been quite busy. Part of that is because my next post is another epic rant unfortunately (looking like 2,000 words plus at the moment). But most of the time has been spent on preparation for the silly thing with the gown and stuff which happens tomorrow morning.

I have managed to go through my entire time as a student without complaining about debt or money issues. But just as I get to the end of this whole academic journey I have been tipped over the edge. I honestly cannot believe how much money I have had to spend on this nonsense. I don’t like dressing up at all (I think it’s quite pretentious, even on special occasions) so I’m buying all of these smart clothes for the first time. I haven’t got the calculator out, but I reckon it must be well over the £200 mark by now. What a load of fuss over 90 minutes! I bet you I will never find another use for that white bow tie…

Anyway, thanks to the wonders of modern technology my graduation ceremony will be broadcast live on the internets (Windows Meeja required). Will I trip up? Will my trousers fall down? Will my hair catch fire? Tune in to find out!

Well there has been a lot of controversy over who got penalised by the stewards at the French Grand Prix and who didn’t. And once again McLaren are at the centre of it all.

After the Canadian Grand Prix I pointed out that Lewis Hamilton was beginning to show a worrying inability to accept when he has made a mistake. They say you learn from your mistakes, but Hamilton would rather stick his head in the sand under the mistaken impression that this makes him “very strong mentally“.

Andy at Brits on Pole suggested that there are signs that a siege mentality is forming within McLaren. Asked about the three penalties that McLaren have been handed in quick succession, Ron Dennis said on ITV, “Draw your own conclusion.”

In fairness, Martin Whitmarsh quickly put a lid on the story. However, he still pointed out that it was the opinion of the McLaren team that the penalty handed to Lewis Hamilton during the French Grand Prix was not justified.

I can understand that the people at McLaren are a bit fragile these days after the FIA put them through the wringer in the way that they did last year. I particularly worry about Ron Dennis who is beginning to look like he constantly has to bite his tongue. He is probably trying to keep a lot of pent-up anger bottled in. This leads me to think that McLaren are slightly losing control of the situation and their ability to make rational decisions has been compromised.

Among all of the hyperbole, here are some facts. McLaren broke (or, more accurately, a McLaren driver) broke the rules three times in quick succession. First of all, Hamilton failed to see a red light in the pitlane in Montreal and caused an avoidable accident in the pitlane. Causing an avoidable accident is bad enough, but causing one in the pitlane — which is a highly concentrated area full of people — is simply unacceptable. The ten place grid penalty was fully justified.

Then in qualifying for the French Grand Prix, Heikki Kovalainen impeded Mark Webber’s qualifying lap. It was not intentional, but he did it nonetheless and the penalty was expected. Even McLaren expected this one, fuelling Kovalainen heavy for Q3 in an increasingly rare piece of clever quick thinking from McLaren.

Finally in lap one of the race Lewis Hamilton cut the Nürburgring chicane immediately after passing Sebastian Vettel. This is the most contentious one.

For Clive, Hamilton did little wrong. “Hamilton had gained the place before the chicane and so did not benefit from his slight error”.

However, this is far from clear cut. Undoubtedly Hamilton had edged ahead of Vettel. But was he completely clear of Vettel? It seems not. He was probably not far enough ahead to commit to taking the chicane properly. As Keith has noted, Hamilton has contradicted himself within a matter of a few words in one interview about the incident:

I believe I was ahead on the outside and I couldn’t turn in on the guy otherwise we would have crashed

So was he ahead or was he not? Hamilton says he was ahead, but at the same time he would have crashed if he turned in — which means that he was not ahead, but in fact side-by-side with Vettel.

The bottom line is that if Hamilton had tried that at a circuit like Monaco where skipping the chicane means going into the barriers, he would have been out of the race. Unless he is completely stupid, he wouldn’t have tried it at such a circuit. This means that he took advantage of the tarmac run-off at the chicane. For this reason he should have been punished.

For me, the fact that even the people on ITV were contemplating the fact that Hamilton was in the wrong sums up that this should not have been a controversial decision.

It is a well-known rule that if you gain an advantage by cutting the chicane (such as, for instance, taking a position, or keeping a position that was under threat) then you can expect to get a penalty. There are three possible penalties: drive-through, 10 second stop-go or a ten place grid drop. Hamilton got the most lenient of these penalties.

Of course, Hamilton could have avoided getting a penalty at all by simply giving Vettel the place back and trying to take him again. This is what drivers always do if they skip the chicane inadvertently. So why Lewis Hamilton did not do this puzzles me a lot.

There was always a risk following the incident that Hamilton would be penalised. Not a slim risk, but a significant risk. Given that, it would have been a lot more sensible for Hamilton to play it safe by handing Vettel the position back — costing him a few seconds at most — rather than waiting to be slapped with a drive-through penalty that would have cost him more like 30 seconds.

I can well understand why Hamilton didn’t hand Vettel the place back. It is because he simply cannot admit it when he is in the wrong. He simply does not have it in his bones to do the sporting thing even when doing so will be advantageous to him. For him, it is easier to sit back and imagine conspiracy theories rather than hold his hands up and say he was wrong.

This we know already. What worries me though is the fact that McLaren did not tell him to give the place back either. The team is there to — hopefully — make these judgements when a driver’s emotions get the better of him. Unfortunately, it looks as though the guys on the pit wall are also letting their emotions get the better of them.

There is another explanation. We saw McLaren take the safe option when Kovalainen was at risk of getting a penalty. But they failed to do so when Hamilton was in a similar position. Could it be that McLaren find it too difficult to tell Lewis Hamilton what to do?

We know for a fact that Lewis Hamilton doesn’t like being told what to do, even when the order comes direct from his boss Ron Dennis. We saw this in qualifying for the Hungarian Grand Prix. Hamilton’s petulant behaviour set in motion a chain of events that would eventually lead to the $100 million fine.

Perhaps McLaren found it easier to let the punishment come along rather than deal with Hamilton’s petulance and sulking after being asked to give the position back. If that is the case, it is deeply worrying for the future of Lewis Hamilton’s career. If anyone is in a position to kick Hamilton’s mental attitude into shape it is the McLaren team. But they appear to have given up.

There is another possibility — that McLaren have actually adopted Hamilton’s approach to racing. We can see this in Ron Dennis’s implication that the only possible explanation for their downfall is that everyone is out to get McLaren.

Now it is true — as Clive and Milos have both noted — that arguable two other drivers should have been given penalties in France.

One was Jarno Trulli’s “wheel bashing” incident. I am not so sure about that myself. Trulli claims that he did not bash wheels and Kovalainen hasn’t said a word about it. I think they probably came very close, but it was 50/50 for me. Kovalainen’s attempted move was extremely optimistic. Meanwhile Trulli was trying to take an optimal line into the chicane. It’s not as though Trulli swiped at him having come from the opposite side of the track. He just edged over to get a wider angle into the corner. It was aggressive driving from both drivers, but not dangerous in my opinion — and if it was then the blame is 50/50.

As for Kimi Raikkonen, the dangling exhaust pipe was simply unacceptable. It was a blatant safety risk. What if the exhaust pipe snapped off and hit another driver on the head? What if the exhaust pipe went into the crowd?

What on earth is the black and orange flag for if it isn’t for this sort of situation? I find it difficult to imagine how that car could have been more dangerous. Maybe it could have spurted fuel onto the driver behind. Perhaps the rear light could have turned into a death ray.

The FIA should take a good look at themselves for that one. But if there is a conspiracy, it is the same old Ferrari International Assistance rather than anything against McLaren if you ask me. And I say this as someone who thinks the FIA’s treatment of McLaren last year was nothing short of outrageous.

McLaren’s apparent paranoia bodes very badly for Hamilton’s career. Unless he and McLaren can become more pragmatic about the situations they find themselves in, this sort of thing will keep on happening.

But now in the face of the good old fashioned British media backlash, Hamilton now faces the biggest mental test of his career at Silverstone on the 6th of July. His first home grand prix was the scene of Hamilton’s first jitters, when he was impatient in his pitstop. Since then he has begun to look like a nervous wreck in high-pressure situations.

Hamilton calls himself “very strong mentally”, but in fact he is one of the least mentally strong front-end racing drivers I can ever think of seeing. He mistakes stubbornness for mental strength which is part of the problem. He needs to learn to be genuinely strong rather than just petulant.

Magny-Cours was always set to be a boring race. The circuit is not known for its competitive racing, and it’s difficult to imagine a more favourable circuit for Ferrari. The red team did indeed pull off into the distance, but that didn’t stop it being a more interesting race than expected.

Kimi Räikkönen looked good for the win at the beginning of the race. But just when you think you’ve seen everything in F1, something new and unexpected happens — and once again Räikkönen was at the centre of it all for the third race in a row.

Kimi Räikkönen’s season is fast turning into a story of Mark Webber-esque bad luck. First there was his crash in Monaco which was partially his fault but which he had little control over. Then he got the surprise buttsecks treatment in Canada.

Now in France he has suffered from an odd exhaust failure. The component was flapping around in the air causing all sorts of damage to the right rear of his car — both in terms of physical knocks and the kind of heat the exhaust must have been giving off. Initially the problem was causing Räikkönen several seconds per lap but over time he managed to adapt to it. But the exhaust eventually flew off which leads me to wonder if it might have been safer for the stewards to order him to pit to have the exhaust removed before it flew off into the path of another driver.

Despite Räikkönen’s woes, he still managed to finish 2nd which rather underlines Ferrari’s dominance at this circuit. Felipe Massa, in an uneventful race for him, took the win and at the same time takes the lead of the Drivers Championship for the first time in his career. He is the first Brazilian to lead the world championship since Ayrton Senna.

Massa is in fact the fourth different leader of the championship in four races. The championship is very close at the moment — just ten points separate the top four drivers. It is doubtful, however, that either Kubica or Hamilton can prevent Ferrari from running away with it at this stage, with many of the up-coming circuits suiting Ferrari and some of McLaren’s best circuits having been visited already.

BMW in particular struggled badly this weekend. Kubica certainly was struggling with handling problems during practice. And notably, Heidfeld struggled to get through to Q2 during qualifying, setting three laps in a row that were only good enough for 18th on the grid. He did surpass that eventually, but lined up on the grid way back in 11th. His race ended in 13th. It was a far cry from his second place in Canada.

Meanwhile, plaudits have to go to Kubica for wrestling the car into 5th. He had some moments during the race where he looked quite fiery, but he had little potential today to make much of the race.

This underlines just how close Formula 1 is this year. Moving from one circuit to another results in sometimes dramatic changes in the order through the field, particularly from the third-best car down to the eighth-best.

Toyota, however, are showing consistent improvement. I wouldn’t have trusted Jarno Trulli to hold on to third place. At this very circuit in 2004 he managed to lose a position to Rubens Barrichello on the penultimate corner of the race, cementing his reputation as a poor race driver who lacks full concentration over a full race distance.

However, this year he managed to hold off a late charge from Heikki Kovalainen (and, at one point, Robert Kubica) to take third position. It’s Toyota’s first podium for over two years and it is fitting that it should come in the week that the team mourns the loss of its founder team principal, Ove Andersson.

As for Heikki Kovalainen, he had a fantastic race. Starting tenth on the grid following a 5-place grid penalty after impeding Mark Webber during qualifying, Kovalainen stormed his way through the field to take fourth. Just as it was beginning to look as though Kovalainen did not have what it takes, he has managed to salvage something from what was becoming a disastrous weekend for McLaren.

His team mate Lewis Hamilton certainly did not storm through the field. He needed to take pole position for his strategy to work, but it backfired as he qualified third — which meant starting 13th on the grid. On soft tyres and a light fuel load, Hamilton was aggressive at the start and overtook many cars.

However, his first overtaking manoeuvre raised eyebrows. It was a brave move on Sebastian Vettel, but it was a touch too brave and Hamilton ended up cutting the chicane slightly. At that point Hamilton should have let Vettel pass again because Hamilton clearly gained an advantage by cutting the corner. Ron Dennis protests that Hamilton had clearly passed Vettel by that stage, but I have to disagree. Hamilton would never have made that move stick if he took the chicane correctly and the stewards were right to give him a drive-through penalty.

I think Red Bull can be reasonably pleased with their performance today. Mark Webber took another points-scoring position in 6th while David Coulthard was perfectly positioned to take advantage of any front-running retirements in 9th. This was arguably the team’s best result all season.

Renault are also looking like they have more speed in their car now. I think Alonso had the pace today, but his race was seriously compromised by yet another dodgy strategy from Renault. Alonso was very light at the beginning, and was the first to stop after just 15 laps. The team then switched him to a two-stop strategy, meaning that Alonso had to deal with a heavier car and spend longer on the (sub-optimal) soft tyres.

Alonso’s race of unfulfilled potential was underlined by the fact that his much-maligned team mate Nelsinho Piquet overtook him very close to the end after a traffic-related confusion. Piquet certainly looks as though he has turned a corner now. He was on the pace much more consistently all weekend, and did not make any silly mistakes during the race. This could be the turning point of Piquet’s career and he can now point to the fact that he has beaten the most successful active F1 driver in equal equipment.

I have no idea what happened to Toro Rosso during the race. Sebastian Vettel in particular looked great earlier on in the weekend, but it just didn’t come together for him during the race.

I am starting to wonder about Sébastien Bourdais. After a great start to his season in Australia, Bourdais has been anonymous at best and his middling performances are beginning to make him look as though he is not F1 material. Today he finished 17th, ahead only of the Force Indias, and as far as I could see he had no problems. What was that all about?

Williams must also be desperately frustrated with their performance today. Nakajima and Rosberg finished in 15th and 16th, way off the pace. For a team that was touted as the third-fastest in winter testing, this is just not good enough. This season was supposed to be so much better for Williams.

Honda also had a dire race. Jenson Button was the only retirement after he was involved in an accident while Barrichello could only manage 14th. Just as things were looking up to Honda, they suddenly find themselves firmly at the rear of the grid again.

The British Grand Prix is next. I reckon Ferrari will storm away with that one as well. Let’s see. We’ve been treated to some good races recently. Even the French Grand Prix had more drama than anticipated — even if the predicted rain came to nothing.