A closer look at the smaller parties.
The collapse of the SSP / Solidarity has been spectacular. They have lost all of their MSPs, and apparently even have only one councillor each in the whole of Scotland now. What I am most surprised about, though, is the fact that Solidarity actually seem to have the upper hand.
The SSP clearly owed almost all of their support to the charisma of Tommy Sheridan. Now that he has gone off to form his own party, the left vote has split. But Tommy Sheridan has been quick to point out that Solidarity is already the largest socialist party in Scotland, after just eight months.
It is still a huge comedown. In many areas Solidarity are behind Christian parties. In most areas they are also behind the BNP. Meanwhile, the SSP linger around among the truly diddy parties, registering between roughly 0.5% and just over 1% of votes.
I had got the impression that the SSP had a bigger movement behind it. But clearly among the electorate, SSP support is dead. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see Solidarity bounce back by the next election. Tommy Sheridan will have to rebuild trust, but he is the only person in a position to get any socialist party winning seats again.
Outside the five main parties, the best performers have consistently been the SSCUP. In effect, they are now the strongest small party (apart from the Greens). Not bad going, but they have still lost an MSP which really underlines just how badly the small parties have done in this election.
UKIP have taken an absolute drubbing — at the very bottom in Central Scotland, and not much more popular elsewhere. Clearly there just isn’t that same level of support for UKIP in Scotland as there is down south. I wonder if this is to do with their promises to sack all MSPs. I just don’t think there is any appetite for that sort of thing. Maybe to reduce the number of MSPs, but not to sack them all.
Elsewhere, it is evident that the BNP has got at least 1% of the regional vote. The Christian parties also put in surprisingly strong performances. Damp squibs from Scottish Voice and the Publican Party.
Among the bloggers up for election, the 9% Growth Party came last in Glasgow with 80 the votes (ahem, 0.0%). Adam Lyal’s Witchery Tour Party got 0.3% in the Lothians, which was just more than the similar Had Enough Party.
Oh, and a word about independence as well. There is no mandate for an independence referendum. The SNP have more seats than Labour, but they do not have a majority. Indeed, they only got around a third of the votes cast and all of the other independence-supporting parties of note saw drops in support.
And of course, not every vote cast for the SNP will have been a pro-independence vote. In many instances, it will have been a simple anti-Labour protest vote. Pro-Union candidates still have a majority in Parliament, and they picked up a majority of votes.
It’s not quite time yet.
Update: Forgot to say my bit about the Lib Dems. I’m glad they are not in a position where they can be sole kingmakers. I was getting the impression that they were a little bit too comfortable with the idea of being perpetually in government. It is not a healthy attitude.
And while I am usually sympathetic to the Lib Dems when they are accused of getting in to bed with anybody, it is easy to see how they can just focus on finishing third rather than, say, pursuing good policies.
Because of the electoral system used, a coalition needs to be formed, and the Lib Dems will usually find themselves in a position to be part of the Scottish Executive. I’m just glad that this time round they will need to get someone else — probably the Greens — on board as well.


commenter
4 May 2007 22:16
#1
“There is no mandate for an independence referendum.”
If there’s a majority for it in parliament there is. Simple as that.
Will P
4 May 2007 22:30
#2
“There is no mandate for an independence referendum.”
Given that no party won a majority, is there a mandate for any of the parties’ policies, apart from the usual, “We want more policemen, nurses, teachers, sunny days, etc.”?
doctorvee
4 May 2007 22:33
#3
If they can get a majority of the Parliament to agree, yes. And that has been the case for every piece of legislation passed by the Scottish Parliament (otherwise, by definition, it can’t be passed).
Commenter #1. There is not a majority for it in Parliament. Unless they can do a deal with the Lib Dems, it is not going to happen.
Will P
5 May 2007 01:21
#4
So if the SNP succeed in pursuading the LibDems to support a referendum as part of a Coalition deal – and given Green support for an independence vote it might be more probable than we think: we don’t really know as yet what the price will be for their backing a government (though admittedly, they’re more likely to focus on environmental issues than the Constitution) – then, just as on every other SNP, LibDem or Green policy that makes it into an agreement, there would surely be a mandate for that referendum. We don’t yet know if there will even be an agreement, let alone what’ll be in it, so isn’t it a bit early to be saying what policies have or don’t have a mandate?
That’s really all I’m saying: you’re the second person I’m aware of mentioning this with specific reference to a referendum today (the other was Iain Smith), and all we really know for sure right now is who is and is not an MSP…
doctorvee
5 May 2007 01:35
#5
Well, sitting here today, the SNP aren’t in the kind of position where they can force the Lib Dems to concede by saying, “We have a mandate to push for this referendum”. I mean, they can’t say something like, “You cannot possibly oppose a referendum because a majority voted for us”, because that’s not the case.
If the Lib Dems can be persuaded to make a deal, then that is a process of representative democracy and coalition politics. Then a referendum on independence would be fair enough.
bill macvean
5 May 2007 07:57
#6
Not every labour voter voted against independence
Will P
5 May 2007 10:53
#7
Can’t argue with that. We still have to get used to this I suppose: Westminster has usually produced results that allow us to use verbs like ‘is’, ‘has’, ‘can’ and ‘will’. Maybe with Holyrood we’re still having to deal with verbs like ‘could’, ‘might’ and ‘should’ instead.
MatGB
6 May 2007 14:49
#8
On the minor party vote collapse:
http://rhythmaning.livejournal.com/147778.html
Hopefully will have time to shout that across the place at some point later. Disgraceful, many of the minor parties only campaign for list votes, if you’re a Green or similar, your vote has been discounted completely if you didn’t vote in the constituency. Agh!
doctorvee » The Lib Dems just can’t win
7 May 2007 13:43
#9
[...] As I said on Friday, there is no mandate for a referendum. That post provided a reaction from an anonymous commenter: If there’s a majority for it in parliament there is. Simple as that. [...]